The New York City area will likely lose 82,000 housing units in the next 15 years to rising seas, a local research firm warned Monday.
Extreme weather events caused by climate change have produced heavy rainfall and pockets of severe flooding in recent years across New York City and Long Island, and sea levels are projected to rise 16 inches by 2040, the Regional Planning Association said in a housing and climate study. The influx of water will inundate and destroy existing homes, and that loss could worsen the area's already grim housing shortage, association researchers said.
To help prepare for the loss, New York area lawmakers should encourage developers to build housing units, particularly multifamily buildings, farther inland and near major transit lines, the report said. Local governments should also create a "buyout" program in which they purchase single-family properties, tear them down, and prevent future home development in those areas, the report suggested.
It's important to start building more housing now to compensate for future flood losses because the demand is showing no signs of slowing down, the report said.
“To meet current and future demand, the region’s total housing needs could reach 1.2 million units by 2040," Tom Wright, association president, said in a statement.
Loss would more than double by 2070
The estimated loss of 82,000 residential properties includes homes on Long Island and in Westchester County, the suburban area directly north of New York City. All told, flooding will swallow up some 77,300 acres of residential-zoned land, according to the report, which warned that the total losses could soar to 160,000 by 2070 if officials do nothing.
New York City experiences a major rainfall disaster practically every year. In 2021, Hurricane Ida dumped 3 to 5 inches of rain on New York and New Jersey, according to the National Weather Service. Tropical Storm Ophelia dropped 6 to 8 inches on New York City in 2023, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and a year later, Tropical Storm Debby unleashed another 2 inches on the city and its northern suburbs, NOAA said.
“There is no community in Westchester that hasn’t been directly affected by or heavily concerned by the now-routine flooding from extreme weather events,” Tim Foley, CEO of the Building & Realty Institute, said in a statement Monday. "Building multifamily housing where appropriate with substantially better infrastructure and stormwater management and a boost to local property taxes can help us deal with the twin crises of housing and climate resilience.” The institute is a trade group in Armonk, New York, that represents Westchester-based homebuilders.
Other groups warn of intense flooding
The Regional Planning Association is the latest organization to sound the alarm on how intense flooding will affect New York City's housing market. More than 1 million residential properties across Connecticut, New Jersey and New York are at-risk of flooding, a 2024 study from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York suggested. A large swath of people in the risk area live in multifamily buildings and are considered low-income households, the Federal Reserve said.
Another large chunk of at-risk communities is in upstate New York, including Troy and Cheektowaga, and northern New Jersey.
"In other words, it is not just low-income households in New York City that are facing risk from flooding," the Federal Reserve study suggested. "There are thousands of low-to-moderate-income households living in inland communities at risk of flooding from overflowing rivers and heavy rainfall."