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Report says more baby boomers staying put as they age

Delay in 'silver tsunami' puts further limits on housing supply

CHICAGO HEIGHTS, IL - Wednesday, October 4, 2017: Alantris Muhammad walks out of her home with her mother Dorris West, who suffered a car accident that left her unable to walk or eat on her own eleven years ago. Story brief: Alantris Muhammad says there was no question that she would leave her job after her mother suffered a car accident that left her unable to walk or eat on her own. At 42, she hadnÄôt even started to think about retirement. But as the oldest of four siblings -- and the only one in a dual-income household -- she says it was a Äúno brainerÄù that she would look after her mother full-time to avoid putting her in a nursing home. Muahammad moved her mother into her house so that she could help her throughout her recovery. FFor months, she Muhammad slept in her living room on a newly purchased sofa bed so that she could stay near her mother, who was on a feeding tube and could not yet climb the stairs to her new bedroom. Eleven years later, her mobility has improved. But her mother, who is now 69, still suffers several strokes a month and has a difficult time speaking or tackling other routine tasks. (Photo by Alyssa Schukar for The Washington Post via Getty Images) (The Washington Post via Getty Im)
CHICAGO HEIGHTS, IL - Wednesday, October 4, 2017: Alantris Muhammad walks out of her home with her mother Dorris West, who suffered a car accident that left her unable to walk or eat on her own eleven years ago. Story brief: Alantris Muhammad says there was no question that she would leave her job after her mother suffered a car accident that left her unable to walk or eat on her own. At 42, she hadnÄôt even started to think about retirement. But as the oldest of four siblings -- and the only one in a dual-income household -- she says it was a Äúno brainerÄù that she would look after her mother full-time to avoid putting her in a nursing home. Muahammad moved her mother into her house so that she could help her throughout her recovery. FFor months, she Muhammad slept in her living room on a newly purchased sofa bed so that she could stay near her mother, who was on a feeding tube and could not yet climb the stairs to her new bedroom. Eleven years later, her mobility has improved. But her mother, who is now 69, still suffers several strokes a month and has a difficult time speaking or tackling other routine tasks. (Photo by Alyssa Schukar for The Washington Post via Getty Images) (The Washington Post via Getty Im)

By David Holtzman

November 11, 2024

More baby boomers who own homes are putting off selling as they age, a significant factor in the limited number of existing homes for sale in the United States.

A previously anticipated “silver tsunami” of homes for sale by older Americans hasn’t materialized, according to an updated report from the research arm of the Mortgage Bankers Association. That flood of homes may still occur, but not in the next decade, the report found.

People born between 1946 and 1964, known as the baby boomer generation, made up 41% of all homeowners as of 2022 when the MBA’s original report was published. Using U.S. Census data up to 2016, the report projected at the time an annual supply of 250,000 homes coming on the market as boomers sell their homes or pass away. But the pattern of people selling at a certain age changed between 2016 and 2021. Now, a widening gap between supply and demand for older residents’ homes is expected, reaching nearly 2 million by 2035.

“With more older people aging in place, and the older homeownership rate increasing, there will be excess demand for these homes," said Edward Seiler, executive director of the MBA’s Research Institute for Housing America, in an email. "This means that there is unmet demand now and over the next decade and exacerbates the need to increase the supply of housing units.”

It's unclear why older people are staying put, but there are some possible explanations. The report points to higher retirement incomes among baby boomers, higher capital gains tax liability from sales and motives related to passing assets on through bequests. Another factor is high mortgage rates over the past two years. The report uses data through 2021, so it doesn’t consider how the pandemic and high rates since then have affected the housing market.

The supply of existing single-family homes and condos for sale has hovered around 4 million for the past year, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. That figure hit 6.6 million during the pandemic in January 2021, then tumbled as average mortgage rates rose past 7%.